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Thu. Jul 21, 2005

Hacks, Dupes, and Duds

There’s so much that we don’t know yet, but it would appear that there’s been an attempt to repeat the attacks in London of two weeks ago, either by the same “group” (minus the four bombers themselves), or perhaps a like-minded copycat group. It brings a lot of thoughts to mind that may be made moot in less than one news cycle as we learn more, but this is clearly a major development. And in my opinion, it’s a very positive one.

Like two weeks ago, these “incidents” occurred on three Tube trains and one double decker bus.

Bus operator Stagecoach said: “The driver heard a bang he believed came from the upper desk of the bus.

“The windows were blown out. The bus is structurally intact and there are no reports of any injuries.”

Witnesses to the explosion said there had been a bang followed by the smell of smoke.

Sky News: The Number 26 Bus – What Happened In Hackney

Note the descriptive word, “bang.” Similarly, in the BBC Reporters’ Log we hear, “One passenger said he thought it sounded something like a large stone hitting the side of the bus.”

Compared to the adjectives and verbs of violence used two weeks ago, it’s quite notable. As is the lack of a death toll.

This was not just a total failure, it’s a potential gold mine of evidence. Yet within hours, what do we hear about? The Fear Factor: “Have the terrorists finally gotten smart? If today’s incidents in London are what they appear they might be — a second wave of attacks by al Qaeda — then it appears they have (unfortunately) learned a dangerous lesson about modern-day terrorism [...] Single, dramatic attacks or series of attacks over a single day will not get the job done. But a series of attacks, weeks or days apart, random, unpredictable, and persistent — what effect will they have?”

Before getting to what should be blindingly obvious, I have to ask, what about second bomb attack in Madrid? Most people likely don’t even remember it. Mere weeks after 3/11, after the election that brought to power a government that said they would indeed pull their troops out of Iraq, a bomb was found on “the track of the high-speed AVE train” on April 2. A failed second attack.

By the next day, that evidence had led to the plotter’s hideout.

Back to that bus:

There has also been an incident on a bus in Hackney, East London.

Police are reportedly examining a rucksack left on the top deck.

A security source has told Sky News that a high explosive has been found on the bus, similar to that used in the July 7 attacks.

Sky News: Incidents Reported Near Tube Stations

While the fact there’s still terrorists actively plotting against London is a great cause for concern, right now British authorities are gathering up their own facts: a treasure trove of forensic evidence, and I’m guessing, maybe even a failed bomber or two (I’d also note, with reference to More on PhotoTerrorists, British officials are asking anyone with relevant photos to please send them in).

We don’t know much more now. Frankly, I’ve seen no evidence that convinces me that the attackers of two weeks ago actually intended to be suicide bombers. There’s considerable evidence to the contrary, from the simple fact they carried ID, credit cards, and other personal effects that allowed their car, home, and associates to quickly be identified, to the lack of some things. Like, a videotape made prior to the attacks, as we almost always see dedicated martyrs make before their attack.

What kind of impact would have been generated by videos of British citizens explaining why they thought they had to kill other British citizens? What kind of jihadist recruiting tool would that be, and why on earth would they not create one? Why not even a letter to family or friends explaining their act? Why bother to prepay the parking fee on the car they left in Luton, if they knew they’d never be back?

There is so much more to be learned here. But one lesson today is that sometimes your “dedicated jihadist” is actually just an incompetent hack. Or maybe even a dupe.