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The Daily Whim

The Daily Whim

Fair and Unbalanced

Mon. Nov 03, 2008

The Math Says No Lines In Georgia, And A Long Wait For Results

There are 5.75 million registered voters in Georgia, and 3,000 polling places. I read a prediction of a national turnout of 64% of registered voters, so let’s generously estimate 70% in Georgia. 4,029,900. That’s, on average, 1,343 people per polling place. On average, that’s 112 people per hour the polls are open, at each and every one of those 3,000 precincts.

However … 2 million Georgians have already voted. And if a 70% turnout prediction means a touch over 4 million total voters in Georgia … then half have already voted.

That means out of that 112 people per hour per precinct, 56 of them have no need to show up. And 2 million total voters is far less than the 3 million who voted at the Georgia polls in 2004.

Thus, there should be no extended lines for voting in Georgia.

Based on the 2004 turnout, plus the 2 million votes already cast, you should be able to handle a total of 5 million voters (an 87% turnout) before you see lines longer than 2004.

Call me an optimist.

However, some of the folks responsible for counting all those votes in Georgia are pretty pessimistic about us hearing the final results Tuesday night.

And I imagine those kinds of issues will be in evidence in other states in an amplified form (many states expect an equally high turnout, but had no early voting). So despite the fact many pundits claim the race may be called by 9PM EST, I have a feeling it’s going to take a lot longer.

My biggest hope for this election is a huge turnout, perhaps 140 million voters (which would be about 15 million more than in 2004). And if that hope becomes a reality, well, we should expect it to take some extra time to count all those votes.

So I expect to have a short wait to vote on Tuesday, but I don’t expect to know the final totals until Wednesday.


Peanut Gallery

1  Todd++; wrote:

I noted in the paper that Fulton and Clayton counties had considered requesting longer voting times. To me, this would be a good way to ensure that it’s an unfair vote- after all, they’ve had the same extra time for early voting, and why should some counties get spare time? It’s worth nothing the fact that the only counties to consider it are those most likely to come in for the Democrats- those who spend the most time whining about being disenfranchised. I guess overenfranchised isn’t a problem.

The story mentioned that Fulton county has one voting unit for every 175 to 186 registered voters who did not partake of early voting. That’s even given a 90% turnout, which would be HUGE. This comes to a worst-case scenario of 15.5 voters per hour per machine in Fulton, or one voter every four minutes or so. If that won’t do, then nothing will- I voted on Friday, and I’m sure I didn’t take four minutes to do it.

Most annoying to me are the number of people who have already started claiming that electronic voting machines can be ‘easily hacked’. There’s a video on CNN of a guy breaking into a server and ‘hacking’ it by replacing an EEPROM. He’s got to use a special tool kit, have intricate knowledge, and it takes him 10 minutes to do, during which time he’s clearly got ALL the machines in the place disabled. Riiiiight. Sure, I guess in some universe, there must be a place where someone could wander into the polls, pick the lock on a server cabinet, tear it into 10 pieces while you’re replacing chips, and then get it back together without anyone noticing all that activity. Sure. The argument surely will be that the pollworkers will be complicit in this, but they tend to put workers of both parties in each polling place, so you’re going to have to buy some folks. The argument that paper ballots aren’t subject to fraud is funny, too- a stack of paper ballots and a pollworker who has the book of who hasn’t shown up to vote isn’t a possible voter fraud situation? Sure. In someone’s fantasy.

At least it’ll be over soon. Then we can listen to the three months of screaming the election was stolen by fraud, defective machines, or voter suppression. After that four more years of people writing letters to the editor about how the administration is destroying the country, and how it isn’t my president because I didn’t vote for him. Gad, how low the system has sunk.

2  Reid wrote:

Well, Todd, that’s a dark and cynical view. One I would usually have beaten you to posting.

However, for the sake of my sanity, I’m cocooning in my “comfy place,” a place where Election Day will go smoothly, the only problem will be counting so many votes, and when the results are known, 80% of America will say “welp, hard to argue with that.”

And no, there’s no Kahlua in my coffee today. Check back Wednesday, and my mood may be entirely different.

For today, the cold hard math above is all I can offer.

Comment by Reid · 11/ 3/08 02:07 PM
3  Jim wrote:

I don’t understand what is making these lines so long. Is it quantity of voters? Is it problems at the registry (or whatever it’s called when you sign in)? Are people having problems figuring out the electronic voting booth or hanging chads? Are people wasting time in the voting machines doing the “eeny-meeny-miny-moe” thing while trying to decide on a candidate?

I’ve never waited more than five or ten minutes to vote in my life, and I’ve been voting for 25 years. I don’t remember anything that could even be called a line.
I can’t imagine that we on the Jersey Shore of New Jersey have figured out how to make voting go smoothly.

What gives?

Comment by Jim · 11/ 3/08 05:48 PM
4  Reid wrote:

“What gives?”

It’s the math, Jim!

In the 2000 election, about 100 million voted for president.

In 2004, about 125 million voted.

This year, it may well be 140 million.

40% increase in eight years.

Also, during that eight years, most states changed over to a new electronic voting system, and some perhaps don’t process voters quite as fast.

In states that did not offer extensive early voting, it could be ugly.

Comment by Reid · 11/ 3/08 06:01 PM
5  Jim wrote:

New Jersey doesn’t technically offer early voting. Though there is some sort of no-questions-asked absentee system.

I vote after work, usually around 6 or 7 o’clock. I’ll do the same tomorrow. I’ll report back to you on how long my lines were.

If it’s ugly, I’ll know pretty quickly. You’ll see me Twittering my disbelief.

Comment by Jim · 11/ 3/08 07:37 PM
6  Jim wrote:

As predicted, in my precinct, no lines and no waiting. There was, however, a dispute over a provisional vote which resulted in some dude from the Board of Elections being consulted.

Comment by Jim · 11/ 4/08 07:51 PM
7  Reid wrote:

Well, voting took 40 minutes away from home for me (I live about 200 yards from the polling place). And one hour after the polls have closed, 1% of precincts have reported in for Georgia.

So it looks like I was correct about those two things, if nothing else; short wait to vote, long wait for full results.

Comment by Reid · 11/ 4/08 07:56 PM
8  Jim wrote:

I live in New Jersey. As soon as the clock on my computer flicked to 8pm and the polls closed CNN, MSNBC, and FOX all sang in perfect harmony, “With no precincts reporting, not a one, Barack Obama easily carries New Jersey.”

Thanks for voting.

Comment by Jim · 11/ 4/08 08:18 PM
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