The Daily Whim
My Site, My Whims, Your Consternation
Sat
Dec
29
2007
Another Meaningless Candidate Roundup
This presidential campaign has been a bit like the Super Bowl. The pre-game show is interminable, but it is now nearly time for kickoff. In a few days, voters in Iowa will have their say, and about five weeks later, Georgia voters (including myself) get to have ours. So I thought I’d give a quick summary of my thoughts on the candidates (the ones worth having thoughts about, i.e., Tancredo, Hunter, and others haven’t made the cut), since I have thus far pretty well stayed out of the specifics. And I emphasize, these are my personal opinions and impressions. Meaning, I’m probably about to trash your favorite.
Let’s start with the Republicans:
Rudy Guliani — I think Rudy’s campaign is a train wreck looking for a place to happen. There are so many little scandals in his life, one hesitates to say which will blow first. I don’t foresee him getting the nomination, but if he does, he will be as big a partisan target as Hillary.
Mike Huckabee — I think the Huck-A-Surge seen recently has been because he came across as a moderate, charismatic, and reasonable man … at first. Of course, once you’ve been tagged “The Surger,” people will begin to point out your less-than-moderate positions on many issues. Whether he can maintain his surge remains to be seen. There seems to be a significant portion of the Republican Establishment throwing bricks at him these days. That doesn’t bode well for securing the nomination.
John McCain — I truly admire McCain for the strong stand he has taken on the issue of torture. There is certainly no better authority on the subject running for President. But there is a certain squinty instinct in him that worries me in a leader.
Ron Paul — He’s definitely an odd bird. But here’s what I love about Ron Paul: he’s running as The Anti-Republican. He’s running against everything the Republican Party has stood for over the past eight years. Quite successfully, so far. However, I have a feeling his eventual impact on the race may be like that of Howard Dean in 2004, i.e., a lot of noise, a lot of money raised, but no actual primary victories. Still, in my opinion the Republican Party needs a good shakeup, and Ron Paul is a fine agitator.
Mitt Romney — My favorite quote about Romney comes from Reagan’s former speech writer, Peggy Noonan: “Mitt Romney is — well, he continues to seem like someone who’s stepped from the shower and been handed a dress shirt by his manservant George. He’s like a senior account executive on ‘Mad Men.’ That is just so On The Nose. Account execs will say anything to appease the client.
Fred Thompson — Someone nudge Fred and wake him up. On second thought, don’t. He doesn’t seem like he really wants the job. I just get no sense of urgency from the man.
If I sound less than enthused about all of the Republican candidates, it’s likely because I decided some time ago the entire Republican Party needed to be sent off on a spirit walk in the wilderness to find itself. Because it has so obviously lost its way. And the only way that will happen is a shattering defeat at all levels, President to local dogcatcher.
So, on to the Democrats:
Joe Biden — Joe would probably make a good cabinet member, or even VP. He’s probably a great guy to talk to over a beer. He seems to be an intelligent and charismatic guy. But he also seems to lack a certain something, and I can’t quite put my finger on what. He’s quite full of himself, and obviously loves the sound of his own voice … but what politician doesn’t? Over the years, I have somehow built up a slight mistrust of his judgement. Like I said, I can’t quite put a finger on why.
Hillary Clinton — I’m quite ambivalent about Hillary. I do not buy into the idea she personally has more “executive” experience, but I do believe those around her do, including, obviously, her husband. But then I look at Bush, who also surrounded himself with people with tons of executive branch experience (Cheney, Rumsfeld, etc.), and that didn’t exactly turn out to be a “plus.”
In the end, I succumb to the “polarizing figure” argument (especially given recent demi-desperate tactics), despite what Ezra Klein said: “Still, it’s a bit misleading to say ‘she’ is more polarizing. Polarization isn’t a character trait; it’s the outcome of a process. And that process is American politics.”
Indeed. And what two names have been central to this polarized process of American politics for nearly 20 years??? Bush and Clinton. They have been the constants among all the other variables. Frankly, I think two decades of rule by two families is unseemly and verges on anti-democratic, despite the votes that put them in office (and while there are those who argue the 2000 and 2004 elections were a fraud, we should also remember Clinton won with 42% the vote in 1992, and 49% in 1996 … a plurality, never a majority). In my opinion, it is time for that near-monarchy to end.
Christopher Dodd — I truly admire Christopher Dodd for taking a stand on FISA and other surveillance law, and even forcing his own Senate leader to back down. But he has otherwise failed to capture my attention.
John Edwards — I offered light support for Edwards in 2004, mostly via process of elimination. That process is entirely different this time around, and Edwards has not “worn well” on me during the four years since he last ran, as since then, he’s pretty much just kept running. He’s now a perpetual candidate.
Dennis Kucinich — To my mind, he’s a bit like Ron Paul, except he’s running as the Anti-Democrat. And someone needs to do that. But I don’t think he’s got a chance in hell.
Barack Obama — I will merely offer an anecdote from a few months back. After watching him be interviewed by some political show, I looked at Susan and said, “someone is going to kill him before he’s elected. Because he’s too good.” I very much hope I’m wrong.
Bill Richardson — I like Richardson, and early on hoped he would become a viable candidate. Never did happen. But he’s another who would be good in the cabinet, or maybe as VP.
I also find it interesting that the two candidates with the biggest surge are Huckabee and Obama. They are not prototypical partisan polticians, and they have a certain calmness and deliberate manner in common. That should be a sign to both sides, we’re tired of the anger and partisan bickering.
So, here in Georgia, I’ll be voting in the Democratic primary. By early February, I expect many of the names above will have dropped from the race. There may only be three or four choices left per party. And, barring any unexpected major revelations, I’ll be voting for Obama.
Domestically, I’m ready for the Bush-Clinton dynasty to end, and I’m hoping they’ll take their collective bag of ugly tricks with them. I want someone who isn’t lying to us when they claim they are a uniter and not a divider. And internationally, I think the face of America changing from that of George Bush to that of Barack Obama is precisely what is needed.
The pendulum of American politics has swung way too far. In my opinion, Barack Obama is the prescription to swing it back.
Published 02:54PM, Sat, Dec 29 2007
Category: Politics Critics-and-Opinions
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Peanut Gallery
McCain – But there is a certain squinty instinct in him that worries me in a leader.
Ya lost me there. . . What?
I generally agree with you on the others. Either Hillary or Obama would be fine with me. My old friend John Edwards has worn on me badly as well – and I campaigned for the guy last time – even representing him in mock debates before the various democratic clubs in the Atlanta area.
Among the GOP guys, Mitt strikes me as clearly the best qualified to actually be the president. But that says more about the other GOP guys than it says about Mitt.
Ultimately, I care more about democracy and the republic than I do about Democrats and Republicans.
So my real priority is making sure Mussolini doesn’t get elected. I don’t call him that lightly. Notice that you don’t have to wonder who I’m talking about. The name fits.
The Ron Paul campaign is the one that has me worried. It’s not Paul himself- he’s sorta invisible behind the NetHype that’s the whole moving force of the deal. What worries me is his supporters- they remind me of the kind of dogmatic ‘do not speak ill of my God’ extremists that blow stuff up if they don’t get their way. If you tell them they’ve got 6% in the polls, they’ll say the polls lie. If you ask them questions, they say that it will be better, different, etc- but no specifics, please. If you put up an online poll, they skew it by making 45,000 new users per hour on the site to vote for him.
It’s creepy.
Todd: “It’s creepy”
What I find funny is these often very conservative-to-libertarian folks use a call to “Revolution” as part of their campaign. I about fell out when I saw a mid 70’s pickup truck, complete with Rebel Flag sticker, sporting a big red bumpersticker that read “Ron Paul Revolution!”
I just wanted to honk and raise my right fist in a power salute, and shout “Yes, Revolution, Comrade!” ... just for the sport of it.
In a lot of ways, I think he represents a focus of anger at the Republican Party … from within the party itself. As well as any libertarian-independents who’ve felt left out of the choices the past few elections.
Plus, right now he’s benefiting from low expectations … beating Fred Thompson in Iowa will be considered a “victory.”
After Iowa (in a surprisingly sensible process, now that I understand it) it looks like you’re on the money. Hilary divided them and Rudy just plain baffled them.
New Hampshire should be interesting and will make or break Edwards and Romney. Then again, NH is full of iconoclasts convinced that they can affect change on a national scale between bouts with the snowblower and sucking down endless cups of coffee.
I say this as a confirmed Yankee and love the Granite State.
“I say this as a confirmed Yankee and love the Granite State.”
Having lived next door in Vermont when I was young, I can relate. A-yuh.
Last night was indeed interesting. I think Edwards had the most to lose, because he’s practically lived in Iowa since 2004, and does not have the campaign cash to spend his way out of trouble in the remaining states. And you’re right, anything less than a very strong 2nd place in NH means he’s doomed. He needs some big victories prior to Super Duper Tuesday, where he simply does not have the cash to compete. South Carolina is no longer in his hip pocket, and he sure did come across as angry last night.
And if Mass. Gov. Romney can’t win the state next door, yep, he’s toast as well. But he has so much money, it may be some time before he realizes it. I think McCain will be the one to mop up in NH, and Huckabee will have to hope he can battle back in SC.
Clinton’s narrative is now that of a re-run … “The Comeback Kid” of 1992, redux. Can she, like her husband in ’92, take a lickin’ and keep on tickin’? It’s way too early to count her out, but I don’t think she’s got the rock jaw her husband displayed so often. He could take any punch you could throw at him. But with Hillary, I am somehow given the vision of a boxer on the ropes, swinging wildly, hoping one of them will connect, but mostly just looking a bit foolish for all the flailing.
Her speech last night was a nakedly transparent attempt to co-opt the message of change that the voters had solidly backed by voting Obama. She claimed the mantle of victory … for all the Democrats running, because they’d all done so darn well. After all, politics is such a team sport, isn’t it?
I don’t think Hillary was responsible for the Democratic turnout being 80,000+ above 2004, and nearly double the total turnout for all Republicans this year.
And that turnout was as big a message as anything: all the netroots Howard Dean activity and cash deployed to raise turnout in 2004 was absolutely blown out of the water by the numbers last night. Huge numbers of under 30 voters, and first time voters. And Independents. And they all went strongly for Obama. Over all, in a state that is nearly even in the numbers of registered Dems and Repubs (575K vs. 600K), the turnout was about 2 to 1, Democrats to Republicans.
If that turnout trend continues in New Hampshire and South Carolina, it may be all but over. In Iowa, there sure seem to be a lot of people who were fed up with More Of Same, on both sides of the aisle, and showed up in huge numbers to do something about it.
I find that extremely encouraging.
Huckabee/Norris didn’t so much cripple Romney as exposed him. That’s much worse – you can recover from a beating, you can’t recover from not being that great in the first place.
The guys who actually run the GOP hang out in country clubs, not churches. And I doubt that they’ll stand for a Huckabee nomination.
So, with a non-threat taking out his most formidable rival, I’d argue that Rudy had the best sixth-place night in the history of American politics.
So that leaves the GOP with McCain v. Il Duce. That’s an easy question, and I hope to God they get it right.
Emcee, I believe I know the boogeyman in your closet who clearly haunts your nightmares: his name is Rudy. He’s dressed in drag, and Donald Trump thinks he’s hot.
There, isn’t that a bit less threatening than Il Duce ?
4.5% in Iowa. He’ll be lucky to break 10% in any primary before Super Duper Tuesday in his “firewall” states like Florida. And this election, I think that strategy is akin to leaving the pits and taking to the track during the last 10 laps of the Indy 500 … and expecting to win.
I’ll say in NH it will be McCain #1, Romney a distant #2, Huckabee a close #3, Guliani and RonPaul tied for #4. I also see no way Clinton is going to be able to turn Obama’s Big Momentum off in a mere five days. But I anticipate much flailing about in an attempt to do so, which will likely just sink her deeper in the quicksand.
Like emcee, I am afraid of the small man in search of a balcony, so much so that I think Job One is keeping him away from the nomination. Second priority is supporting Obama.
The guys who actually run the GOP hang out in country clubs, not churches. And I doubt that they’ll stand for a Huckabee nomination.
Huh?
They do both. Church is only once a week, that leaves plenty of time for plotting environmental destruction and cooking up energy scams by the pool. Falwell might be gone but the evangelical vote is very real — after Ronnie (Roe v. Wade, oh my) and Dubya (how’s that abortion thing going?) burned them, they’re looking for a true believer. One who ain’t Mormon.
Just to go against the conventional wisdom, I think McCain is in for a rude, Clinton style, awakening in NH. Touching on what Reid said above, that Independent vote is a funny thing. They don’t get polled and their vote doesn’t count until they vote. This is going to bite McCain in the ass in NH the same way it got Hillary in Iowa.
Huckabee and Obama take NH, hands down.
Emcee, I believe I know the boogeyman in your closet who clearly haunts your nightmares: his name is Rudy. He’s dressed in drag, and Donald Trump thinks he’s hot.
Yep, that’s the guy.
There, isn’t that a bit less threatening than Il Duce ?
Let me think. President suspending habeas corpus and, if at all possible, declaring himself president-for-life under permanent martial law v. President (dressed in drag and making out with Trump) suspending habeas corpus and, if at all possible, declaring himself president-for-life under permanent martial law.
Nope, not less bad. I’d call it a toss-up.
If you watch it with the sound off, it makes it look like Rudy is the leader of those people.
Based on Paul’s recommendation, I just watched it with the sound off. It was one big visual “BOO!!! Are ya sceered?!?” I particularly liked the flourish of a truck bomb going off in Firdas Square in downtown Baghdad.
Just because it had absolutely nothing to do with anything, but it sure was a scary BOOM! You’ve just gotta find room for that alongside the footage of Osama shooting off an AK47.
Because that, and the arm swinging/saluting martial-footage, just screams ROOOOODDEEE!!!!
From emcee fleshy: “Let me think. President suspending habeas corpus and, if at all possible, declaring himself president-for-life under permanent martial law v. President (dressed in drag and making out with Trump) suspending habeas corpus and, if at all possible, declaring himself president-for-life under permanent martial law.”
Robert A. Heinlein, “If This Goes On…”
Right down to the ‘dressed in drag’ (at least all of the mental images I have ever had of The Prophet certainly fit that image).
Okay, now I am seriously unnerved.
reidstott: If I'd just been hit by a tornado, and heard FEMA was coming, I think I'd look for another bathtub to hide in. One disaster is enough.
Interesting post. I agree with a lot of your assessments. I admit I haven’t paid much attention to the candidates’ positions or the debates, but as the primary season approaches, that will change. Right now I just have a few “gut” feelings, not based on any real reading of positions.
In my gut assessment, I always apply the Cuban Missile Crisis test first. Bush 41 and Clinton 42 both passed it. Bush 43 failed it miserably. As Ted Kennedy said (sic), “if this crew was in charge during the Cuban Missile Crisis, we’d all be under a parking lot now.” In this batch, the only Republican that comes close to passing it is McCain, but I have a “gut” feeling that there is a screw loose somewhere there. Rudy would be a bad joke in another Cuban Missile Crisis. Some vital communications step would have been ignored, a-la the police/fire radios. I think Hillary passes it because the administration would be Clinton 2.0. But I have a lot of other reservations about her. As my Republican mom says, “I didn’t trust Bush; he’s a liar, and I don’t trust Hillary either.” She says she learned a lot after her health care fiasco. I think she learned that not only will the Insurance Lobby be seated at the table, she’d probably even have them bring the table. As far as Obama, the Cuban Missile Crisis test is a question mark. Would Oprah be his Secretary of State? His experience is a question mark, but further study on my part may or may not alleviate that concern. At least I bought his book, which I haven’t done for any other candidate.
I would really welcome a “new direction”, if it’s backed by competency. Bush had no experience and it showed badly. The incompetence turned it into a nightmare. But I’m seriously sick of beltway politics. When the Republicans controlled Congress the mantra was, “Our President, right or wrong.”. Now that the Democrats are in control, the mantra seems to be, “We don’t have the votes”. But out here in the Real World, it sounds like “We don’t have the guts.”