Wed. Nov 08, 2006
The Demise of the Bogeymen
It’s a bit perplexing. The promises made that were not met. Especially given the source(s).
Karl Rove promised some of his Republican cohorts that there would be an October Surprise, implying he knew of a plan or event that would change the shape of the race for Republicans.
Then he told the media poll-watchers that they simply didn’t understand math, that he had access to lots of numbers they didn’t, and there was no need for Republicans to worry about a Democratic landslide.
Like, for example, a Democratic gain of 28 seats in the House, and a virtual tie in the Senate. Simply not gonna happen.
But it did. And the predicted environment changing event for the Republicans didn’t happen, nor did Karl’s “New Math” prove to add up. Who will believe Karl from now on? If they even listen to him…
Meanwhile, we heard rumors that Osama died from typhus, taken out by a lowly bacteria, not as part of some greater jihad. That was over six weeks ago. About the same time some were promising more Al Qaeda attacks during Ramadan. Shortly after that rumor of his death, Al Qaeda members claimed Osama is fine, and that he will release a new message in October. Sort of like he did just before the 2004 election.
But he didn’t. And there were no attacks. Who will believe Osama from now on? If they even listen to him…
Is there another take on this besides “The Demise of the Bogeymen”? Sure. Karl could have known all along that the math was right, and that his October Surprise was more prayer than plan. But he maintained the “solid front” in public to keep confidence up among Republicans, and hoped it might mitigate the coming flood. Surely no one will hold those deliberate lies against him.
Osama? It’s possible he was completely distracted by his desire for Whitney Houston, and the fact she filed for divorce. It wouldn’t be the first time a powerful man’s brain got derailed by the blood rushing to other regions.
More likely, he may have simply decided to sit this one out. Al Qaeda may believe that [1] they have settled a new home in the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan, and [2] America’s fate in Iraq is all but sealed. In both cases, if that is their belief, why upset the course of events when they are naturally going their way? They’ve managed to settle a new “failed state” within Pakistan, and Iraq is teetering towards “failed state” status more each day.
And we know what “failed states” bring us in the future, don’t we?
To be fair, it would appear I was wrong, too (shocking!). In Pieces of October, I speculated on all of this, made some “out on a limb” predictions, and could not have been more wrong (so far … there’s still a two month window on aspects of it).
But I said then, “if the march of time proves me totally wrong on all these random musings, since seven weeks will have passed, and comments close on articles here after six weeks, no one will be able to remind me how foolish I sounded!”
Well, have a mulligan. Osama and Karl won’t give you one, but I will.
Published 12:27PM, Wed, Nov 08 2006
Category: Politics Al Qaeda
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Peanut Gallery
This reminds me of the old saying about dogs..
What would that dog do if he actually CAUGHT the car?
Now the Democrats have to work that out, now that they have in fact, caught the car.
Paul: “Now I’m curious as to whether they’re interested in being an opposition party with real ideas, or if they’ve got nothing”
That certainly remains to be seen. And I certainly have my doubts. It also depends on whether Bush really means it when he says he’s going back to the style of leadership he used in Texas to make progress with a legislature that opposed him. I certainly have my doubts about that, too.
In my mind, the goal wasn’t to get a Democratic agenda moving forward. It was to get back the accountability that Congress pretty much abandoned over the past four to six years.
Todd: “What would that dog do if he actually CAUGHT the car?”
Well, Todd, the dog-caught-the-car analogy goes both ways, and the Republican dog caught the car (i.e., control of all branches of government) a long time ago: “After the Republican victories last November, a lot of people, including Republicans I know and love, said ‘now, let’s see what they do with it,’ like the proverbial car-chasing dog who finally catches one.”
And “what they did with it” was disaffect their own base enough to lose control of Congress. Will the Dems do any better? No, they will eventually do the same thing … as happened in ‘94. It’s a near certainty. It’s the cycle and swinging pendulum of American politics. That’s essentially what we just witnessed … the pendulum changing directions … again.
But recall the two times in the past thirty years that one party controlled it all for any length of time, and what We The People got as a result; the era of Jimmy Carter, and the just ended era of Bush 43. Meanwhile, one party controlling Congress while the other controls the White House gave us the booming Reagan 80’s and the booming Clinton 90’s.
Which would you prefer?
Right now on TV, the President is turning his Rumsfeld/Cheney vow of last week on its ear. If that turns out to be the sole accomplishment that results from yesterday’s tally … I’ll take it. And consider it the best election result I’ve seen in some time.
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Right up until last night, I thought the Democrats were going to find some way to screw it up and lose again.
Now I’m curious as to whether they’re interested in being an opposition party with real ideas, or if they’ve got nothing. I really hope they’ve got a good agenda or at least some sort of roadmap of what they’re going to do.