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Thu. Jul 28, 2005

Live To Bomb Again

In “Hacks, Dupes, and Duds,” I wondered about whether the first London attacks were really meant to be suicide attacks. As word of evidence trickles out, questions continue to be raised.

This Associated Press report covers some of the points I made earlier:

They bought roundtrip train tickets and paid for long-term parking – two of the details that are prompting the intelligence community to question if the four London bombers intended to die.

According to experts who have been briefed by police, they parked a rental car outside the train station and paid to park for seven days, then purchased roundtrip tickets to London. Police later found explosives in the car.

When the men arrived at King’s Cross station in the British capital, they split up and attacked three Tube trains and a bus – killing 52 people and themselves.

No suicide notes or videotaped messages for their families have surfaced as has happened in attacks elsewhere.

The four men could have been duped into thinking they were carrying timed bombs and would be able to get away, Beaver said. He pointed to the fact that the bombs would have caused much more damage if detonated in stations, which could suggest they were not expected to immediately explode. “The thing is we won’t know that until we knew more about the detonation systems, which is what the forensic boys are doing now,” he said.

Guardian Unlimited: Did London Bombers Know They Would Die?

Of course, they also add that “In the latter attempts, it’s clear at least some of the bombers expected to die — they lay on top of their explosives, which failed to go off.” A witness reported a prostrate bomber “outstretched in a Jesus Christ position, lying on top of a medium-sized black and green rucksack, face up” ... which I suppose might ensure your quick trip to the afterlife, but I’d think it would tend to block some of the blast, as well.

But back to the original four bombers, and that car they left in Luton:

The plot for the July 7 transit bombings in London, which killed 56 people, may have been much larger than previously known, ABC News has learned.

Sources familiar with the investigation tell ABC News an additional 12 bombs and four improvised detonators were found in the trunk of a car believed to be rented by suicide bomber Shehzad Tanweer. Police believe the bombers drove the car to Luton, where they boarded trains to London.

“I believe that the explosives left in that car were left there for a second strike,” said Bob Ayers, a London-based terrorism consultant with expertise in demolition. “But the metropolitan police responded so quickly, they were able to get to the car and take control of the car before the second team could get the explosives and leave.”

ABC News: Sources: July 7 London Bomb Plot May Have Been Much Larger

One problem with that analysis. It was July 12, five days after the attacks, before the police found the car. That would have to be one very slow and/or incompetent “second team,” if that was their plan.

So we are left with a car rented in the name of one of the bombers (who carried complete ID on the attack with him, for ease of tracing), with the parking paid in advance for seven days, round trip tickets purchased to return to Luton from London, and a trunkfull of bombs.

It sure paints the picture of a “team” that expected to return, and reload. Everything we’ve heard about them so far leads one to think they were the “A Team,” and the July 21 crew definitely has the look of “second stringers.” As their bungled bombing is unraveling, one can’t help but wonder how incompetent any “third stringers” might be. Which also points out the drastic and intentional “brain drain” of the jihadist strategy … but that’s a subject for another time.

Of course, it does look like the bombs found in the car in Luton seem to be notably different than the backpack bombs they used.

THE picture of the nail bomb (right) is fuzzy and indistinct but no less chilling for that. It is an X-ray image of the type of nail bomb that Britain’s suicide bombers intended to use. The bomb is packed into a small plastic bottle similar to the kind found in any supermarket.

Inside is an improvised detonator with cable leading out to an electrical device that would provide the charge to set off the bomb. The nails, probably felt-roofing tacks, were attached to the outside of the bottle and encased in layers of clingfilm.

Attaching them to the outside of the bottle is thought to be a quirk of a bombmaker who is now feared to have made dozens of devices.

Times Online: Deadly device image leaked to US

Both the British media and quite a few American bloggers seem to be somewhat shocked by the nails in these weapons, as if they add a new dastardly element to the game. Using nails as shrapnel is hardly new.

Imagine a device that starts with a half-inch metal plate, maybe 12×12 inches. Affix your explosive material to one side of the plate. Then cover that material with roofing nails. Put the resulting 40 pound mass into a backpack. Prop the backpack up against a bench, explosive charge facing out. It’s a poor man’s Claymore.

Nine years ago yesterday, a backpack bomb just like the above exploded in a crowd at Centennial Park. Two of those roofing nails made these impressions in a statue (more here). One of them killed Alice Hawthorne. And it could have been even worse. Because, by chance, that propped up backpack got knocked over flat onto its back, and most of the explosive force (and nails) went upwards.

And don’t think I’ve given away any secrets on constructing backpack bombs. All I’ve written above and more will be laid out in court here in Atlanta on Aug. 22 at the sentencing of Eric Rudolph.

Rudolph, of course, does not have the jihadist mentality, his extremism was more cowardly. He offered death to those he judged, but when faced with the possibility of the death penalty for those acts, he made a bargain with his devil, the government he proclaimed to hate. He definitely wasn’t the type to ever consider a suicide attack. He made the biggest backpack bomb the FBI has ever encountered, planted it, and made sure he lived to bomb again.

To me, there is so far no hard evidence that says that the four original bombers in London didn’t have the very same intentions. Live to bomb again.