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Sun. Jan 30, 2005

A First Step

There have been many who are quite concerned about the reaction in the West to the election in Iraq, like Michael Ignatieff:

The election in Iraq is without precedent. Never, not even in the dying days of Weimar Germany, when Nazis and Communists brawled in the streets, has there been such a concerted attempt to destroy an election through violence — with candidates unable to appear in public, election workers driven into hiding, foreign monitors forced to ‘observe’ from a nearby country, actual voting a gamble with death, and the only people voting safely the fortunate expatriates and exiles abroad.

Just as depressing as the violence in Iraq is the indifference to it abroad. Americans and Europeans who have never lifted a finger to defend their own right to vote seem not to care that Iraqis are dying for the right to choose their own leaders.

Why do so few people feel even a tremor of indignation when they see poll workers gunned down? Why isn’t there a trickle of applause in the press for the more than 6,000 Iraqis actually standing for political office at the risk of their lives?

The Observer: “Iraqis fight a lonely battle for democracy”

I guess I made it pretty clear those reactions bothered me as well, but today isn’t a day for that. It’s a day for this:

This was my way to stand against those who humiliated me, my family and my friends. It was my way of saying,” You’re history and you don’t scare me anymore”. It was my way to scream in the face of all tyrants, not just Saddam and his Ba’athists and tell them, “I don’t want to be your, or anyone’s slave. You have kept me in your jail all my life but you never owned my soul”. It was my way of finally facing my fears and finding my courage and my humanity again.

This was the same place I went in 1996 to cast my vote in a poll asking if we wanted to have Saddam as a president for life or not. I had to go at that time. The threats for anyone who refused to take that poll were no less than the death penalty … This time we went by choice and the threat was exactly the opposite.

Ali: “The best Eid I ever had”

And this:

I am happy to report…no I am honored to report that I have cast my ballot in our election. It is such an amazing feeling to be able to have some control over the destiny of my nation, a feeling I have not known before!

It will be a day forever remembered. My voting was only a simple act, I went, I identified myself, got my finger stained, filled out a ballot, and dropped it in a box. It is not a complex or grand process to the eye, but it is one that I will forever remember and will recount to my children, and their children. And God willing it will be remembered through the ages.

So, there is not much more for me to say on this day. I am just elated and excited. So much hard work and sacrifice has gone into making this day come, and I am so speechless now that it is here.

Husayn: “The Historic Day Has Come”

And lots more here. But the general consensus I’ve seen so far is that things have gone “better than expected.” Ali tells us “Al Arabyia just reported that 6 thousand people in Fallujah have voted till now out of 60 thousands who have returned to their homes.” Reuters appears to confirm that and more:

Millions of Iraqis turned out to vote Sunday, defying anti-U.S. insurgents determined to drown the historic poll in blood.

Suicide bombs and mortar fire shadowed the event, the first multi-party election in 50 years, killing at least 22 people. But still voters came out in force, many with resolve, some with fanfare and others with their faces hidden.

Even in Falluja, the devastated Sunni city west of Baghdad that was a militant stronghold until a U.S. assault in November, a slow stream of people turned out, confounding expectations.

“We want to be like other Iraqis, we don’t want to always be in opposition,” said Ahmed Jassim, smiling after voting.

In Baquba, a rebellious city northeast of Baghdad, crowds clapped and cheered at one voting station. In Mosul, scene of some of the worst insurgent attacks in recent months, U.S. and local officials said turnout was surprisingly high.

Reuters: “Iraqis Brave Bombs to Vote in Their Millions”

But it’s not all sunshine and puppy dogs in the media, as you don’t have to look far for another spin on events:

For what its worth, the election did go much, much better than many expected, both from the point of view of turnout, and from the point of view of security. After all, the Ministry of the Interior’s official figure of 36 killed, mostly civilians, is not really a high price in a country where daily you have such numbers dying in one way or another.

Meanwhile, though it is true that 60 per cent of registered voters did turn out and vote, that leaves 40 per cent who did not. Half will have been Sunnis, who make up 20 per cent of Iraq’s population, while the remaining 20 per cent will be a mixture of secular Iraqis, technocrats, Christians and other minorities who simply abstained.

Of the 14 million or so who registered they were expecting around 8 million participation, and they got that. But nevertheless that still leaves a large section of the population seething, unsatisfied and very discontented.

Hala Jaber: “The peace was lovely but it won’t last”

Of course, people want to quantify “success” by the numbers, and at this point, they are hardly reliable. The figures on how many died from terrorist attacks at the polls have varied from 22 in the Reuters report above, to 44 in an Al Jazerra report I saw earlier. I’ve also heard multiple reports of a turnout figure of “72%,” and I think we must assume that is high. Even if we do, and pare off 15% for exuberance, we still have a turnout (61.2%) larger than we had here in the US (60.4%), during an election that had the best turnout the US has seen in 36 years.

So, to Ms. Jaber, I’d have to point out that if 40% of the Iraqis stayed home, and the election leaves “a large section of the population seething, unsatisfied and very discontented,” then it sounds to me like they’ve got this Democracy Thing down pretty well for beginners. Because that sounds exactly like Election 2004 right here in the Good Ol’ USA, both in turnout numbers, and its seething, seceding, unsatisfied, immigrating, and very discontented aftermath.

But back to Iraq, and those numbers we simply must have. 30 to 40 people were killed, and between 8 and 10 million voted. It’s not the kind of scorecard we usually look at after an election, but in Iraq, I think you’d have to call that “success” of some type. Just by the numbers.

But it’s so much more than numbers. And it’s not just a victory for those candidates on the slates that got the most votes. It’s a victory for democracy over terrorism, and now that is in purely Iraqi terms.

On the one hand, we have the terrorists, and their bleating figurehead, Zarqawi, who made this claim on web site today: “We have spoiled their party. We have struck them with grievous attacks… Before this statement was published, 13 lions from the martyrs brigade of the Al-Qaeda Group of Jihad in the Land of the Two Rivers attacked centres of the infidel in various regions of Iraq.” Meanwhile, CNN says “The statement said the group had promised to conduct the attacks ‘to make fun of those that demand democracy.’”

Well, you better hire more clowns and mimes, Sparky, because you’ve got nearly 10,000,000 who weren’t laughing at your deadly jokes today. They are the “on the other hand,” the newly enfranchised voters of Iraq. So sayeth even the New York Times:

If the insurgents wanted to stop people from voting, they failed. If they wanted to cause chaos, they failed. The voters were completely defiant, and although there was never the sense that the insurgency was over, there was a feeling that the people of Baghdad, showing a new, positive attitude, had turned a corner.

New York Times: “High Turnout in Baghdad Points to Early Success”

The winners and losers today? Almost all of them are people in Iraq, citizens and terrorists. That’s how the fight will be defined now, in the eyes of Iraqis. This doesn’t mean the “right” has “won”. This doesn’t mean the “left” has “lost.” Today, the rest of us are irrelevant bystanders.

Which brings me back to the article by Michael Ignatieff that I quoted at the beginning of this:

The only displays of political prudence and democratic courage have been by the much-despised Iraqis, not their supposedly all-seeing imperial benefactors. Since we lack the grace to admit that Iraqis have shown more wisdom and courage than we have, we don’t trust that wisdom and courage to save Iraq now.

Let us have the decency to support people who are fighting for a free election, and let us have the honesty not to blame them for our own incompetence if they fail. There is still no reason to assume they will.

Indeed, quite the opposite. But we have to view this outside our comfortable framework, where each election we have is a be-all end-all (for at least two years). This election is just the first step for the Iraqis, an important one.

But it’s like the football team that takes the kickoff, pushes their opponent around in a surprising manner as they score on their first drive. It’s important, it sets the tone, and builds momentum.

But it doesn’t win the game.

This vote elected a temporary assembly, the first step towards a temporary government that will form their Constitution. And it is that Constitution that will lay out how the permanent Iraqi government will be elected, and represent each province in Iraq. That vote is currently planned for Dec. 31, 2005.

The Iraqis have a busy year ahead of them, forming their own unique new democracy. This was just the first step, and no one can yet know exactly where it will lead. But to quote Martin Luther King, “Take the first step in faith. You don’t have to see the whole staircase, just take the first step.”

And it fills my heart to see that it was, for the Iraqis, a joyous first step.