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Tue. Apr 06, 2004

The Three Headed Beast

The recent news from Iraq has been pretty distressing. But as ugly as it is, it can be broken down into three parts, each of which must be dealt with independently.

First, let’s look at the tragedy in Fallujah, part of the “Sunni Triangle” that is Saddam’s “homeland.” This is where he derived much of his power, from the tribal/clan structure that he gave great favor, and in return, got great loyalty. But during the war itself, this area that perhaps most needed it was never “conquered.”

Because Turkey refused to let US troops pass through their ports and land, the 4th Infantry Division did not make their planned sweep in from the north, right through the heart of Saddam’s power base. Unlike in Najaf, Kerbala, the other cities in the south, and Baghdad itself, the people of the Sunni Triangle never saw a wave of US armor and infantry blow through their area destroying everything that resisted them.

The people of the Sunni Triangle never saw they’d been conquered. They just heard about it. From afar, shortly before US troops showed up a week or two after the fall of Baghdad, chasing Republican Guard remnants that turned out to be mostly ghosts. They’ve never been shown what happens to those who resist a fully engaged US military unit.

In fact, in many ways we started sending the wrong message the day after Saddam’s statue was toppled. That was the clear act that symbolized “Saddam is no longer in control.” And what happened next?

We demonstrated that we were not in control, not by a desert mile. Looting, burnings, kidnappings, and all sorts of civil disorder wrought havoc on the Iraqi society for many days afterwards. Rumsfeld tut-tutted it away with something about how freedom is messy. Most certainly, but you throw away your hard earned capital when you show that you can topple the guy in power, but aren’t willing to assert power yourself, simply to retain order.

You leave a lasting impression: weakness.

As Ralph Peters writes, “When U.S. forces arrive in a troubled country, they create an initial window of fear. It’s essential to act decisively while the local population is still disoriented. Each day of delay makes our power seem more hollow. You have to do the dirty work at the start. The price for postponing it comes due with compound interest.”

In part, it came due that sad day in Fallujah. And the price paid now will likely be higher than it would have been one year ago to subdue the looting. If we’d just asserted control and shown that unacceptable behavior would be met with extreme measures, from Day One. Because a year later, in these new situations, we’ve still got to do that.

However, I’m not suggesting we go into Fallujah and just Go Cowboy on anything that moves. We should be (or rather, should have been days ago) sending in groups of Iraqis to talk to the people of Fallujah about what happened. I’ve also heard more than one Arab voice say that we did not play the “shame” angle at all, administered by Iraqis, when that would have been very powerful societal medicine. I heard one cleric quoted who spoke out in that manner. But his name wasn’t Sistani, who seems willing to put forth his views on many other things in Iraq, but this clear violation of Koranic values goes unremarked (Mohammed himself condemned the mutilation of enemies on the battlefield).

In all of these problems in Iraq, we ought to be bringing Iraqi pressure to bear, with our military as the arm of enforcement. Because very soon these people have to resolve their own problems, and it’s time for them to step up to the bat now that things have gotten hot.

At the same time, our military has to assert itself in Fallujah. It has to be shown that behavior will not be tolerated, and if the process of searching for the suspects from the films of that day brings on further ambushes or attacks, they have to be met with overwhelming force. In a way, it’s a baiting process. I saw a brief news clip today that somewhat illustrated the idea. It was simply four M1A2 Abrams tanks spread out at an intersection on a wide city street, not stopping cars or harassing anyone. Just sitting there, as if to say, “Go Ahead, F@$# With This.”

I truly hope that form of symbolic message is all that’s required from our military in Fallujah, but as I said, that’s just one of the heads of this Three Headed Beast.

Head Number Two may have to be cut off completely. Amir Taheri give us the background on this particular head.

The riots were orchestrated by a group led by Muqtada al-Sadr, a 30-year-old cleric nicknamed by his friends as “al-qunbulah” (the bomb). Sadr hails from one of the seven clans who have led Iraq’s Shiite community for two centuries. He was propelled to the top of the clan’s pyramid when most of its senior members, including his father and uncle, were murdered by Saddam Hussein or driven into exile.

But Muqtada is too young to claim the coveted theological title of “Marjaa al-Taqlid” (Source of Emulation) for himself. Nor can he circumvent the two dozen or so senior ayatollahs who dominate the Shiite seminaries throughout Iraq. He is, therefore, trying to make up for his lack of theological gravitas by flexing his political muscles…

Yet the Coalition meanwhile turned a blind eye while Sadr raised an army of almost 5,000 men and turned parts of northern Baghdad into no-go areas for the new Iraqi police. Sadr has also set up a network of charities, patterned on those created in Lebanon by the Hezbollah, to win support among poor Shiites, especially in Baghdad.

Despite the fact there’s been a warrant for his arrest out for a year, he’s now had the chance to raise a militia of thousands (be thankful Michael Jackson hasn’t thought of this), and has decided to fight to the death:

In a statement released by his office, al-Sadr said he was ready to die resisting any attempt to capture him. “America has shown its evil intentions, and the proud Iraqi people cannot accept it. They must defend their rights by any means they see fit,” the statement said. Al-Sadr, who has been fiercely critical of the U.S.-led occupation, is wanted by the coalition on murder charges in last year’s slaying of a rival Shiite Muslim leader.

“Either we continue as a country, or it will be destroyed,” said Iraqi Governing Council member Mouwafak Al-Rabii. Rabii and other Iraqi leaders were out in force in a clear attempt to rally the nation to reject the recent violence triggered by al-Sadr and the insurgency that has jeopardized security in Fallujah and other cities across Iraq.

Well, it’s good to see a bit of that “Iraqi pressure” I was talking about, but this is slightly less comforting: “Prominent Shiite clergy, including powerful Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, were said to be working behind the scenes to defuse the al-Sadr crisis and bring about a peaceful conclusion.”

It’s good that they are at least working behinds the scenes towards a solution, but given that dozens of Iraqis and Americans are being killed, it would be better if Sistani and his fellow clerics made prominent public calls to stop the violence, and for Al-Sadr’s militia to disarm.

Because one way or another, quickly, that militia must be disarmed and disbanded. And Al-Sadr must be brought to justice for blatantly inciting insurrection. Blood has been spilled, in many widespread attacks on both US positions and the Iraqi Police. The only solution is for that militia to be rendered ineffective, by extreme force if necessary. Ralph Peters explains why: Americans value compromise; our enemies view it as weakness. We’re reluctant to use force. The terrorists and insurgents read that as cowardice [...] Make no mistake: Just because we view restraint as a virtue does not mean our enemies share that view. The refusal to use our power in the face of defiance only makes defiance more attractive.”

Which brings us to the Third Head. When defiance is looking more attractive every day, that’s the perfect environment for Al Qaeda and their efforts to incite civil war between the Sunnis and the Shiites. And according the a new tape just released, it’s sounds like Musab al-Zarqawi has been busy:

The speaker on the tape claimed responsibility for a March 17 car bombing of a Baghdad hotel that killed seven people. The reference to the car bombing was an indication the tape was made recently.

The speaker also said that his group carried out the assassination of Ayatollah Mohammad Baqr al-Hakim, the leader of Iraq’s largest Shiite party, the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Al-Hakim was killed by a car bomb in Iraq on Aug. 29.

Very very busy:

“We have chopped their heads off and torn their bodies…at the United Nations in Baghdad, coalition forces in Kerbala, the Italians in Nassiriya, the American forces on the Khalidiya bridge, U.S. intelligence at Chahine hotel, the presidential palace in Baghdad, the CIA in al Rashid hotel and the Polish forces in (the town) of Hilla [...] America came knowing that Sunni Islam is the real enemy and it decided to turn them (Shi’ites) into the Trojan horse to break the strength of the nation.”

And he’s still laying it on thick when it comes to the Shiites:

One theme of the tape echoed that of a letter U.S. authorities released earlier this year in which al-Zarqawi purportedly wrote to other Al Qaeda leaders that the best way to undermine U.S. policy in Iraq was to turn the country’s religious communities against each other [...] On the tape, the speaker said Shiite Iraqis were not true Muslims and were “the ears and the eyes of the Americans” in Iraq. He called upon Sunni Muslims in Iraq to “burn the earth under the occupiers’ feet.”

Very very thick:

Zarqawi also sharply criticises Iraq’s majority Shiite Muslims as a “Trojan horse used by the enemies of the nation” to take over the country.

He also had sharp words for the spiritual head of Iraq’s Shiite majority, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who has appealed for calm and urged dialog amid recent clashes between Shiite militias and coalition troops, calling him the “imam of atheism”.

“The Shiites are the allies of the Jews and Americans. They are helping kill Muslims,” he said.

This is the hardest of the three problems to pinpoint and attack, as is always the case with an elusive terrorist. But in Zarqawi’s case, I think he will continue shooting his cause in the foot (from killing mostly Iraqis, to dissing Sistani), if we can quickly put down the first two sources of insurrection.

But if we are hesitant in dealing firmly with the Sunni Triangle or Al-Sadr and his militia, and clearly asserting control, we risk more chaos like the last couple of days. And Al Qaeda trades in chaos; they thrive in it.