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Wed. Mar 03, 2004

And Then There Was One

And Then There Was One – On primary day in Georgia, I did my duty. I voted for the losing candidate (Edwards), and the losing flag (The 2001 Blue Flag). Oh, well.

As I said back in late January, ”I have no illusions that the candidate I choose to cast that single ballot for in the primary will end up with the nomination. But it’s still my first chance to choose. Sooner or later, the Democrats will settle on a nominee, and they’ll choose a running mate. And then I’ll get my second choice.”

I was honestly slightly surprised and thankful that Edwards was still on the ticket so I could vote for him. As it turns out, I was among the last to have that chance, as he appears ready to withdraw from the race today.

And what a race it has been. Given that we still have a long ways to go until November, we ought to pause to reflect on the power of polls and pundits. Ten weeks ago, pundits were asking when Kerry would admit he had no chance and drop out due to his poor showing in New Hampshire polls (not voting, polls). They snickered when he mortgaged the house to throw $6 million into a campaign they considered to be ”on life support.” Jokes were made about how Kerry had a chance to win, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it!

Who’s laughing now?

A mere six weeks ago, the polls and pundits had virtually crowned Howard Dean as the coming nominee before a single vote had been cast. He, his fervent followers, and fat wallet simply could not be beat. Well, yesterday, he finally won his first primary; Vermont, where most of the other candidates didn’t even bother to put their name on the ballot (that’s how dominant he was viewed at that time). Never has a candidate fallen so far, so fast.

And just two days ago, the AJC claimed Kerry would beat Edwards by 20 points in the Georgia primary. It was barely 4 points, and they were within a thousand votes of each other until more than 90% of the precincts had reported. They predicted a landslide, but instead, it was nearly a dead heat.

You need to remember these things as we proceed. Look at the track record so far. Pundits? Mostly clueless. Polls? Mostly wrong. People? Voting in ways the polls and pundits never dreamed.

So when you hear the polls that say Kerry would beat Bush today by 4 points, file it and forget it. If the election was held today, the truth is, most people would be very confused, because it’s not suppose to happen until November. They haven’t really had to think about it yet. And a lot can happen between now and then.

Consider the difference between early March, 2001, and early November, 2001. An entirely different world, eh? Aside from that, I remember very well that after the Democratic Convention in 1988, the polls showed Dukakis leading Bush by 20 points. Three months later, Dukakis lost in a landslide.

So, over the past two or three months, we’ve not only learned who the apparent Democratic nominee will be, we’ve learned that the pundits and pollsters have a record far worse than simply flipping a freakin’ coin. And they’ve got six months to add more of same.

We’ll cling to each syllable and digit, I’m sure.

As for the voters here in Georgia, the exit polls revealed the Democrats’ main problem: ”Political analysts said the Georgia vote potentially exposes problems for the presumptive Democratic nominee in a November match with President Bush, who carried the state in 2000.”

”’Kerry runs well among Democrats but he has problems reaching beyond the confines of members of his own party,’ said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock.”

”In the exit poll of Georgia voters, independents, who represented about three out of 10 votes cast Tuesday, gave Edwards a 5-to-3 margin, while Republicans, about 10 percent of the voters, overwhelmingly favored the North Carolina senator.”

I may elaborate on my feelings about Kerry some day, but it frankly boils down to the fact I … just … don’t …. like him, on a totally gut level. Don’t like his flippy floppy approach to policy, don’t like his ”Lurching” delivery, don’t like his silver spoon background, etc., etc., etc. But aside from vague personal feelings, the above quote sums up the problem. Kerry will likely do very well at rallying the Democratic Party to his side. But if every declared Democrat votes for Kerry, it won’t be enough to win. If every declared Republican votes for Bush, it won’t be enough to win.

My estimation is that 15-20% of active voters are not declared for either main party, and that is the real battleground in the coming six months. Independents, centrists, potential crossover voters, and third party adherents.

In my opinion, Kerry hasn’t got a chance among that group. And like any pundit (though non-professional), I’m likely to be wrong. But that’s what my gut tells me. He’ll get about 40% of the vote because of the ”D” after his name. Every point after that, he’ll have to earn the hard way.

How do you attempt to do that? Many say that one way you do it by making Edwards the running mate for Vice President, as he has greater appeal in those groups. I beg you to reconsider.

Not for party reasons, or for the Greater Good, but because I like Edwards. If Kerry wins, he might make a good choice for Attorney General, or some other position within the administration. But if Kerry loses (and at this point, that’s what my gut tells me), I’d like for Edwards to remain untainted by the incredibly ugly campaign to come, for the sake of 2008.

But my personal feelings have no impact on this. John Kerry’s do. And I don’t think he likes Edwards. Again, pure gut reaction. I think he’d be much more comfortable with Wes Clark, who immediately hit the road to campaign for Kerry when he dropped out. And Clark might draw on that ”middle constituency” as well as Edwards, and maybe even a little better given his military experience.

Would I vote for Kerry/Clark? Talk to me around Halloween.