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Tue. Feb 10, 2004

Go Into The Light

Go Into The Light – One of the definitions of insanity is to repeat the same failed process over and over again, expecting to get different results. In some ways, that’s exactly what’s been happening with the Democratic candidates since the Iowa caucuses. With the small exception of two states (one for Edwards, and one for Clark), the results have hardly varied, and the dynamic remains the same. No one had been able to put the ”slow” on Kerry’s Big Mo’.

After another failed attempt at the same process (actually, two in one night), the hardy human reassesses the state of his forehead, the brick wall in front of him, and his sanity. If his reassessment extends to his wallet, as a measure of how much longer he can continue this, he is not yet serious about rejoining the Land of the Sane.

It appears that Wesley Clark has seen the light, and is coming home. Sharpton and Kucinich still refuse to even acknowledge there is a light (holding out to campaign in Hawaii?). Howard Dean at first seemed to be admitting there was a light worth seeing, when he said the Wisconsin primary will be ”make it or break it” for his campaign. Later reports indicate he’s again moved away from the light, with tonight’s single digit returns having no impact, and will continue to fight the dastardly Brick Wall past Wisconsin, no matter how bloody his brow. Soon, he may ask his followers to start calling him ”Howard Quixote,” and exchange that bat for a windmill.

Which leaves us with poor Brother Edwards, now the clearly last hope of the ”Anybody But Kerry” crowd. How can Mr. High Road, an inexperienced campaigner, possibly have a chance at knocking off a politician hardened by decades of tough fights, who has now cornered the market on momentum?

I think he has a chance, if a slim one. For one thing, even if Edwards continues to hover at 25% of the vote, he serves as a needed foil. He’s the only petard on which Kerry might hoist himself. But also, it’s because of the numbers. With seven to nine candidates running, all stridently bashing about in their own way, it was easy to stand out as Mr. High Road, because his other option was to lob bombs in seven to nine different directions. Most everybody else was already doing that, so you couldn’t help but look bad. Or boringly similar.

But today we’re down to one: Kerry. Now, what do you think the odds are that an experienced court room lawyer will be able to launch ”attacks” on Kerry and frame them in the name of honest criticism and needed debate to inform the voters? If you’re able to focus on one guy (a guy a lot of people seem to want a reason not to like), and come across as genuinely questioning their capabilities and policies, you might be able to avoid the ”negative campaigner” label.

Can Edwards pull that off? Who knows? But it’s not all he’ll have to pull off. The ante is about to get huge, and they have to fashion a strategy they can afford.

So, if you’re Edwards, I say forget Wisconsin. Let Dean bleed himself out banging against Kerry there. Pick either Idaho or Utah (February 24 primaries), whichever is more fertile, only to try and use it to seed continued interest leading up the Big Day, March 2. New York, Ohio, California, Georgia, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Vermont.

That’s a tall order, even if it is three weeks away. That’s a lot of ground to cover, a lot of markets to buy ads, and a lot of states I wouldn’t think of as ”Edwards strongholds.” The good news for Edwards is that the remaining primaries will now be seen largely as a Kerry-Edwards contest, and that means he’ll get much more ”free” TV time. He’ll have to quickly use that to his advantage. As other candidates can attest, that ”good news” of increased media attention can quickly turn to ”bad news,” if the candidate stumbles. But Edwards has been fairly gaffe-free lately, so I don’t think he’ll trip himself.

However, an objective look at the odds would show the bookies about to take Kerry off the boards, as the nomination now appears to be his to lose.

We’ll see if he’s capable of that.