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Mon. Nov 10, 2003

Strategy or Schism?

Sometimes, when your “company” is forced to become a very decentralized operation, it’s hard to keep all the minions on the same page.

“The Voice of Jihad,” is an online publication that claims to speak for Al Qaeda. Just a couple of weeks ago in the second issue, Suleiman Al-Dosari wrote: “Our number one enemy is the Jews and the Christians, and we must free ourselves to invest all our efforts until we annihilate them � and we are able do this if Allah allows us to do it � because they are the main obstacle to establishing the Islamic state.”

“We must take note of the ploy used by the tyrants [i.e. Arab rulers] in many countries. They attempted to stop the Jihad project in these countries by shifting the confrontation with the occupying enemy (the masters) to confrontation with his guards (slaves) [meaning Muslims] ... We must guard ourselves against this ploy and avoid, as much as possible, confrontations with the armies and forces of the state, so that we can strike lethal blows to the occupiers, Allah willing.”

Judging by the attacks over the weekend in Riyadh, not everyone got the memo: “In addition to Saudi and Egyptian fatalities, a Sudanese and an Indian were also killed in Saturday’s attack, the Saudi Press Agency said. The 122 wounded included Jordanians, Palestinians, Indians, Pakistanis, Sudanese, Ethiopians, Eritreans, Indonesians, Filipinos, Turks, Sri Lankans, and Romanians, the agency said.”

Earlier reports indicated up to three dozen of the injured were Muslim children. There definitely seems to be a distinct lack of Jews (i.e., Israelis) and Christians (i.e., Americans) in the casualty list. And now, in addition to the shootouts with a couple of Al Qaeda members in Mecca last week, “Saudi security officials are deploying thousands of troops to the city of Mecca because of concerns that terrorists may be planning new attacks during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.”

How many Jews and Christians do you think there are in Mecca? Answer: “Only Muslims are allowed to enter the holy cities of Mecca and central Medina.”

So what is Al Qaeda’s goal now? They yammer constantly about leveling a “death blow” on the US (as they have for two years now), but the reality is that, other than the one-shoed half-brained suicide attempt known as Richard Reid, they haven’t even approached our shores with an attack.

Ali Imron, one the Bali Bombers, said “Australians, Americans, whatever – they are all white people,” but the fact is that’s the last time Al Qaeda had any success against “the Jews and the Christians.” Since then, they’ve mostly been busy killing Muslims. Al Qaeda elements are suspected to be behind the bombings in Iraq of the UN, the Red Cross, and outside the holy mosque in Najaf. About 98% of the victims of those blasts were Iraqis. They killed and injured hundreds more Muslims in the bombings in Riyadh last May, and again this weekend.

Now, they may strike in Mecca?

And they talk about Crusaders killing Muslims while trying to take over the “Holy sites”? Sounds a lot like “projection” to me, especially since all US troops left Saudi soil months ago.

As I’ve said many times before, there is often a stark disconnect between Al Qaeda’s often successful tactics (the bombings themselves), and their stated strategy (their goals). But it has grown so stark, I can’t help but wonder if there is more than one driver trying to run this train. Because there’s an increasingly clear effort underway to cause terror within Saudi Arabia, with the goal of discrediting and overthrowing the Royals. Why else would they plot in Mecca, but to prove the Royals were not capable defenders of Islam’s holiest places?

Meanwhile, there are other “leading voices,” including Bin Laden, who constantly call for strikes on the Infidels as the main enemy. Increasingly frustrated calls.

I think there’s several factors at play here, in a cascade. Two years ago, Al Qaeda was forced to change from a secure base with a clear chain of command, to “Band on the Run.” “Decentralizing command” is a kind way to describe the chaos that followed. More came as we picked off several of their upper rung leaders over the past two years.

Those factors forced Al Qaeda to largely let their various cells operate independently. This meant much less ambitious “soft targets” for attacks, as the continental US had become a much tougher nut to crack, especially for the now independent localized Al Qaeda cells. I do believe that Bin Laden and his lieutenants have One Big Plan they’ve been working on, with an obvious lack of success, for some time. But I’ve also come to believe that whatever grandiose plan they have for a “death blow” on the US, it’s a pipedream.

Al Qaeda has largely been reduced to the mostly uncoordinated actions of these individual cells. They’ve each been forced to come up with their own resources and plans. I think some of them came to like it, especially since Bin Laden became a ghost of a leader.

And I’m wondering if we’re now seeing that schism play out in Saudi Arabia.