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Tue. Oct 21, 2003

Bin Laden: Not Quite Dead Yet?

The CIA has decided the most recent audiotape from bin Laden is “likely authentic.” For whatever that is worth. Personally, I tend to think Osama is still with us, though living under far less luxurious and free circumstances than you and I. But around the web, you can find many takers for the other side of that argument.

In the comments of my entry about the latest tape, Chris says “That being said, it does seem unlikely that Bin Laden is alive. You would expect something a little bit better and more impressive if he were.”

Um, no, I wouldn’t. I would expect something exactly like what we’re hearing. The continuing exhortations of a religious manipulator, clearly growing in frustration due to the lack of successful attacks over the past two years, and sounding out of touch with reality because he’s been on the run and in hiding for two years. What more fertile environment do you need to generate the kind of angry noise we’ve been hearing from him?

This year, “he,” whoever that may be, has been quite vocal. And the repeated message has sounded to me like a long note of frustration; “hey, you believers better get on the stick and kill some Americans. If you think killing innocents is wrong, then just stand quietly aside and let a believer take care of it. And you over there, working towards a peaceful democratic solution, KNOCK IT OFF ALREADY! Hey, is anybody listening to me?”

Some point to the fact we are only getting audiotape messages, not videotapes, as a chief indicator he’s really dead. I see it as a chief indicator he can no longer afford that risk, either because his surroundings might give him away, or it would reveal some “new look” (remember this?). In the end, he is left looking like a “leader” who lacks the confidence to even show his face.

So do keep sending out those audio cassettes, Osama (or whoever you are).

After all, we’re nearly certain of exactly how we missed him at Tora Bora: “We had the cat bagged up, we failed to seal the bag for one reason or another, and now we�re chasing kittens all over the place.” Most of those in a position to comment have consistently suggested he’s holed up somewhere in the tribal areas on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. And then there’s these occasional tapes.

On the other hand, we have the long running rumors of kidney failure, and lack of access to dialysis equipment, etc. There’s little more to go on, yet some still feel certain he’s dead. I can’t say for sure either way, and no one can. But either way, he’s become a far less effective man than he was a short time ago. A much smaller man.

Back to Chris: “However, supposing that he is dead, the most logical conclusion is that it�s a second (or third, or…) in command who is following the ancient human tradition of speaking as the most famous member of the group, in the spirit (more or less) of what the leader would have said were he alive.”

Yes, here in America, I believe they are called “Press Secretaries.” Or “PR Agents.”