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Tue. Mar 25, 2003

Approaching Baghdad, Pt. II

Approaching Baghdad, Pt. II – Though I gave myself lots of wiggle room, my thoughts on Approaching Baghdad seem to be mostly on target. So I’m still speculating, partly inspired by thoughts of U. S. Grant and Richmond.

It still appears the Marines are moving in two prongs, one up the crescent between the Tigris and the Euphrates, and one towards Al Kut, where they will likely cross and approach Baghdad from the east-southeast.

Placing the 3rd Infantry is a bit more dicey, as is the 101st (other than the forward base they’ve created). It seems I’ve seen a dozen reports of US forces “finally crossing the Euphrates,” especially in Al Nasiriyah. There is significant evidence that a portion of the 3rd Infantry blew through that town and crossed the river (or on a nearby crossing) days ago. The Marines who’ve done so since then are, in effect, a follow on force. The 3rd Infantry got what they needed from that town … a river crossing … and moved on.

But some, perhaps most (some will say all), of the 3rd Infantry didn’t cross the Euphrates. They have continued moving up the west bank, perhaps using the 7th Cav as a screen, since we seem to hear more about their movements than the 3rd’s. Reports have the 101st either trailing the 3rd Infantry, or providing cover for their western flank, but I don’t buy that. They are a punch waiting to be thrown, in concert with the 3rd. They also have the capability to do some leapfrogging, since we seem to control airfields not terribly far west of Baghdad (and let’s not forget about the presently unaccounted for 82nd Airborne).

It seems to me that a significant portion of the 3rd Infantry (and the 101st) doesn’t plan on approaching Baghdad from the south, or even the southwest. I think they’ll keep moving north along the west side of the river, to the point they will almost be due west of the city. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Marines will be moving up the Tigris from the east.

This will [1] take a little time, allowing some forces to collect themselves, rest, and refit, as well as secure supply lines, [2] force the Republican Guard Units to shift their defensive positions, [3] give air power more time to degrade the Republican Guard units, and [4] allow the 4th Infantry to be closer to ready for reserve or follow-on duties (probably by 2nd week of April).

Rather than directly assault Baghdad over the next day or two, mostly from one general direction, I think we’ll see an approach reminiscent of the one that Grant used in front of Richmond. He started his approach from the north, and then he kept wrapping his lines around the city, to the east, then to the south, stretching Lee’s defenses thinner with each mile. In that case, Lee eventually had to evacuate Richmond when Grant’s lines threatened to completely encircle him. But the point is, Grant used time and tactics rather than brute force, even though he had it in spades. Despite his material advantages, he took his time to degrade and thin his enemy as much as possible. He knew time was on his side, once he had fixed the enemy in place.

Obviously, our goals are different here, and we won’t see Saddam leading his forces out of the city when we come too close. Just the same, many of the same principles apply. We have to stretch their “first ring” defenses, and force him to commit his reserves. So while we’ll continue the pressure from the south, I think you’ll see our forces slipping to the east and west of Baghdad. There are supposedly still units to the north of the city, and between it and Tikrit that must be dealt with. Best to draw them out with flanking movements and destroy them, rather then meet them when they are brought in as reinforcements.

Now that I’ve gone out further on a limb than the first time, I’m sure to be wrong. That’s the way blogging works. But I think it is certain that we will not see our units making a straightline approach to downtown Baghdad from where they now stand. So I’ll close the same way I did the first time, as it’s still true: “They haven’t been planning for six months to walk up to the front door and try to knock it down. There’s been plenty of time to look at lots of interesting options for the tactical approach to Baghdad. They haven’t shown their hand yet.”