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Sun. Feb 09, 2003

Accepting the Coming Storm

Accepting the Coming Storm – (links via Donald Sensing) It’s been a week of interesting rumblings out of Saudi Arabia, and one has to wonder if Saudi Royals and clerics are finally accepting the coming new reality. We start with the clerics, as reported in

” href=”http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID=22589”>Arab News: “Western expatriates have welcomed an edict issued by the Kingdom’s Council of Muslim Scholars forbidding attacks anywhere in the world on non-Muslims, who the edict said should not be randomly judged as ’infidels’ [...] ’The council declares that… what is happening in some countries from the shedding of innocent blood and the bombing of buildings and ships and the destruction of public and private installations is a criminal act and against Islam,’ Al-Riyadh daily said, quoting the statement by the council, which interprets Islamic laws in the Kingdom.”

“’Those who carry out such acts have deviant beliefs and misleading ideologies and are responsible for their crime… Islam and Muslims should not be held accountable for their actions,’ the statement added.”

A welcome statement. It would have been more welcome in the fall of 2001, but welcome nonetheless. Next, we hear about Saudi citizens petitioning the Royals, via the Washington Post: “The winds of political change are swirling even in Saudi Arabia. Sources here point to a ’bill of rights’ that was signed last month by 140 Saudi business leaders, professors and intellectuals. The four-page document, ’A Vision for the Present and Future of the Country,’ called for a Saudi parliament, free elections, a fairer distribution of wealth, a crackdown on corruption and more rights for women.”

“The Saudi manifesto concluded: ’We need not go beyond Osama bin Laden to prove that the new Islamists are on the wrong path.’ Sources say that King Fahd met with a delegation of 40 of the intellectuals to receive the document—a sign that the royal family takes its demands seriously. Though it has been mentioned in the Arab press, the document has received surprisingly little attention in the West.”

And finally, the New York Times reports “Saudi Arabia’s leaders have made far-reaching decisions to prepare for an era of military disengagement from the United States, to enact what Saudi officials call the first significant democratic reforms at home, and to rein in the conservative clergy that has shared power in the kingdom [..] Crown Prince Abdullah will ask President Bush to withdraw all American armed forces from the kingdom as soon as the campaign to disarm Iraq has concluded.”

It looks to me like they can see the handwriting that’s about to written on the wall next door to them. The minimal level of contribution (if any) we plan to get from Saudi bases during the coming campaign makes it crystal clear to all that once we’ve toppled Saddam, we don’t need Saudi bases, especially those we are continually denied the right to use.

It’s plain as day to them that we are the ones likely to tell them, “thanks for a lovely decade, but we’re outta here.” For the Royals, it’s better to preempt that and save face. It’s equally plain they are about to have some form of democracy next door, a miracle of Arab non-tyranny, so it’s best to announce the Reform Train has suddenly appeared at the station. And there can be little doubt now that Wahhabist fundamentalism will only continue to bring pressure to bear on the Royals, both internally and externally. Time to tone down the clerics, as well.

Facing reality can be an ugly thing, especially when you’ve put it off for so long.