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Tue. Jan 07, 2003

Assembling the Big Stick

Assembling the Big Stick“The U.S. military is assembling a ground force for a possible invasion of Iraq that could exceed 100,000 troops and include three to four heavy Army divisions, an airborne division, a Marine division and an assortment of Special Operations forces, according to defense officials and analysts.”

The other day, a friend of mine wondered why we are talking about all these invasion details, and what purpose it serves to spill these beans. My reply was that sometimes if you are very convincing in waving a Big Stick, one that you’ve described in great detail, you never actually have to hit anyone with it. Once you’ve convinced them your Big Stick is close enough and big enough to really hurt them, the will to resist degrades to somewhere between minimal and non-existent. Sometimes, people commit acts of self-preservation because of what they’ve been convinced is about to happen.

“Retired Army Maj. Gen. Robert H. Scales Jr., a former artillery commander in the 82nd Airborne who also headed the Army War College, said he hopes—but isn’t convinced—that the invasion force being contemplated is large enough that Iraqi commanders will believe the United States has enough combat power to overthrow Hussein.”

“’You’ve almost got to put yourself in the shoes of an Iraqi general who says, ’I have two alternatives here: remain loyal to Saddam Hussein, for fear that he will shoot my family, or trust once the Americans cross the border that they have the will not only to fight against me, but carry the campaign to Baghdad and Tikrit and take care of my boss,’ ’ Scales said.”

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