PhotoDude.com

Fri. Oct 11, 2002

Lining Up The Dominoes

Lining Up The Dominoes – With the President having placed the first one, yesterday Congress stood the second domino on its end: "Still, 126 of 208 House Democrats yesterday objected to the resolution, a higher number than some had expected. In the Senate, 22 Democrats and one independent opposed the president in a vote just after 1 a.m. Friday. Many cited concerns that Bush might take military action without U.N. approval and provoke a terrorist reprisal from Hussein or from al Qaeda or other militant groups."

So it appears while Congress in general was split about 70-30 on the vote, about half the Democrats in Congress were against the resolution. Believe it or not, that’s better than the last time around: "A decade ago, Senate Majority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.), Gephardt and nearly three-quarters of their fellow congressional Democrats objected to President George H.W. Bush’s deployment of troops to reverse the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait."

I find it very interesting that Daschle and Gephardt didn’t support ejecting Saddam from conquered Kuwait, but they now support ejecting him from Iraq. Meanwhile, "Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) said: ’The power to declare war is the most solemn responsibility given to Congress by the Constitution. We must not delegate that responsibility to the president in advance.’ But in a poignant reminder of the deep divisions inside the Democratic Party, Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.) broke with his father and sided with the president."

Father and son, split on principle. Whichever you side with, it’s an admirable thing to see. On the other hand, we have Sen. Tom Daschle (D-Daschle): "Daschle raised concerns throughout the debate about Bush politicizing national security, but in the end he backed the president ’because this resolution is improved, because I believe that Saddam Hussein represents a real threat, and because I believe it is important for America to speak with one voice at this critical moment.’ "

Oh, my, that’s a choker. Let’s carve it up into bites. ”This resolution is improved” ... this is the man who one month ago was claiming it would take months of debate and hearings before Congress could consider a resolution, and it surely couldn’t happen before Election Day. How did it move from ”nearly impossible” to ”improved” so quickly, and against Sen. Daschle’s previous judgement?

”...because I beleive that Saddam Hussein represents a real threat” ... but by Sen. Daschle’s voting history, Saddam wasn’t a threat a decade ago just after he’d conquered a neighbor via blitzkreig. Well, perhaps that’s just evidence people sometimes do get smarter with time.

”...I believe it is important for America to speak with one voice at this critical moment” ...and this is where I choke on the audacity. Daschle’s glaringly transparent political self interest has colored his every utterance for months. He’s not taken a stand, he’s taken nearly every stand: Saddam’s not a threat, Bush 41 has no business liberating Kuwait. Bush 43 can’t go to war without Congressional consultation. The President needs to make his case to the people. What, a vote on authorization in October? Can’t happen! The President is politicizing the war by making his case at this time. America needs to speak with one voice, and Saddam is a threat.

It’s dizzying. I’m reminded of some of the Afghan warlords and tribal leaders a year ago, reluctant to commit themselves to overthrowing the Taliban until they saw how serious we were. Once it became clear who was going to win in a Big Way, if they wanted to remain ”in power,” it behooved them to support the winning side. That’s largely the way it’s always been there. It wasn’t about ”principle,” it was about survival within the food chain of power. For the Afghans, making the wrong choice in that food chain could likely result in death or exile, not a cushy pension and regular speaking gigs. But like those warlords, the only thing Daschle represents is his own survival, nothing approaching a position of principle. He seeks the position of best personal advantage … at that moment.

But enough dissing Daschle. It’s too easy, and now mostly irrelevant. Congress requested consultation, and instead they were asked to formally vote on a resolution. This legislative body, consisting of 535 individuals representing another 280 million individuals, negotiated the language for the resolution and 70% of them voted in favor of it. Check. Balance.

This is sometimes called ”unilateralism.”

But, of course, despite that fulfillment of the only Constitutional obligations with regards to war, that isn’t enough. We must also negotiate some type of declaration from the UN, a much more nebulous affair. However, that too appears to be a domino arisin’: "Under the compromise now under discussion with France, Russia and China, according to officials familiar with the talks, the United Nations Security Council would approve a resolution requiring the disarmament of Iraq and specifying ’consequences’ that Iraq would suffer for defiance."

"It would stop well short of the explicit authorization to enforce the resolution that Mr. Bush has sought. But the diplomatic strategy, now being discussed in Washington, Paris and Moscow, would allow Mr. Bush to claim that the resolution gives the United States all the authority he believes he needs to force Baghdad to disarm."

Like I said, it’s a much more nebulous affair. But it would appear that four of the five on the Security Council who have veto power (unmentioned is China) are trying to craft something workable for all. It will be like the five blind men describing the elephant they are touching; each will be able to plausibly claim it is something other than an elephant. Including George Bush.

This is sometimes called ”multilateralism.”

So, we’ve had the leaked war plans, the President making his case, Congress passing a resolution, and the UN set to deliver its Evil Twin. What’s left?

Ah, of course. The leaking of the post war plans: "The White House is developing a detailed plan, modeled on the postwar occupation of Japan, to install an American-led military government in Iraq if the United States topples Saddam Hussein, senior administration officials said today. The plan also calls for war-crime trials of Iraqi leaders and a transition to an elected civilian government that could take months or years [...] The military government in Germany stayed in power for four years; in Japan it lasted six and a half years."

This, my friends, is the real bait on a treble hook, dangled in front of the nose of everyone below Saddam.

"Officials say they want to avoid the chaos and in-fighting that have plagued Afghanistan since the defeat of the Taliban. Mr. Bush’s aides say they also want full control over Iraq while American-led forces carry out their principal mission: finding and destroying weapons of mass destruction."

These things are no doubt true, and I hope reflect wisdom from lessons learned in Afghanistan. Clearly they are very different circumstances, but I think we’ve played the post-war situation there far too loosely. We had the same mandate in post war Afghanistan that they proclaim for post war Iraq; avoid chaos and infighting, and secure full control over the country while American led forces seek out threats to the US (in that case, Al Qaeda).

But there’s more going on here than lessons learned: "The description of the emerging American plan and the possibility of war-crime trials of Iraqi leaders could be part of an administration effort to warn Iraq’s generals of an unpleasant future if they continue to support Mr. Hussein. Asked what would happen if American pressure prompted a coup against Mr. Hussein, a senior official said, ’That would be nice.’ "

This raises the pressure a big notch in the Mind War. Once again, I have to repeat, we have as yet … done … nothing.

Sometimes just seeing so many Big Dominoes being stood up in a row can induce enough pressure that the player stumbles and knocks over the row … without anyone else actually doing anything. I think we know Saddam isn’t going to cave under the pressure. But the real question is whether those near him will. Anyone can knock over a domino, if they’re close enough.

The prospect of a half dozen years of Japan-style military rule might focus some Iraqi minds in a new way.