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Tue. Dec 16, 2008

Cecily Rose Turner

Things have been a bit hectic in the extended Stott family of late. In addition to the usual holiday mayhem, we’ve been awaiting a special newcomer.

Given that she is the child of two “appointment challenged” young adults, it was fated she would be late. But after a slight false start, and one long night at the hospital (but just one), we were graced with the arrival of Cecily Rose Turner, 8 pounds 4 ounces, born shortly after 11am on December 11th.

Mama Turner was an absolute trooper, and she and baby are fine. As for Papa Turner, well, a picture is worth a 1000 words. All are home now, a place that has a whole new meaning.

Grandma and Grandpa are pretty pumped, too. Let the spoiling begin!

Wed. Nov 26, 2008

Is That Really Amish?

I’m guessing you’ve seen the ads on TV. They are for a product that is an odd jumble of words, the “Amish made heat surge.” During the commercial, we see a lot of men wearing Amish hats, indoors, assembling these electrical devices, which they market as some kind of Amish made fireplace.

Hilarious example one, hilarious example two. They look so real, don’t they? (you can also teach your infant that things which look very hot are actually OK to touch!)

It’s the hats that bother me.

I don’t think wearing them indoors while at work qualifies you as Amish, polite, or even OSHA compliant.

Then at the end of the commercial, we see Amish people departing in a horse drawn carriage laden with two of these electronic devices. As if they are taking them to their home. Which, if they are truly Amish, will have no place to plug them in.

If I’m going to buy an electronic device, I’d like for it to be made by someone who actually uses electricity. However, the website suggests that the Amish only make the wooden casing (which they euphemistic call a “mantle,” as if you are buying an actual fireplace), and that “The HEAT SURGE miracle heater is a work of engineering genius from the China coast.”

And it appears that, despite the hats, they’re crap. Which seems distinctly non-Amish to me.

Of course, I guess they wouldn’t sell as many if they marketed them as “overpriced Chinese made electric heaters wrapped in wood in Ohio.”

Wed. Nov 05, 2008

A Truly New Day

When I was a kid, back in the 60’s and early 70’s, we were taught that anyone had the chance to grow up and be President.

But that wasn’t quite true back then, and we were too young to see it. However, I think it finally is true today, and I am old enough to appreciate the significance.

It’s important to remember that America’s most precious documents, like the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, were also products of their times. In the beginning, it was only white male land owners who had the right to vote, never mind run for office.

146 years ago, on September 22, 1862, Abraham Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation, in which he declared all slaves were permanently free.

It was another 100 years before the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Act of 1965 effectively guaranteed the right to vote for blacks in this country.

And 44 years later, this country has elected its first black president.

One might say there is no happier Republican today than the spirit of Abraham Lincoln.

America is the sum of a billion unlikely stories. And I feel like we’re seeing one of the most unlikely of all draw to a close.

There are no doubt many difficult days ahead. But this one is special.

Wed. Nov 05, 2008

Republican Postmortem

I know it is a difficult day for those who vote Republican. In fact, it’s been a difficult year, filled with bile, bewilderment, and disappointment. And for some, delusion as well.

It’s time to pack all that away, and look at the world anew. It’s time to ask with new eyes, how did the Republican Party get to this ugly place?

And I don’t mean the short term fingerpointing that has been going on for a couple of weeks now. The fact the backbiting couldn’t even wait until after election day is indicative of the problem, but doesn’t provide the answer.

It seems clear that there are many who will try to scapegoat Sarah Palin as “The Reason We Lost,” and we’ve seen the beginnings of this prior to election day with the leaked comments from McCain staffers about her behavior and temperament.

I’m reminded of the time I lamented to my Dad that in my job as program director of a radio station, I was “surrounded by turkeys.” He simply replied, “who let that happen?”

In other words, if Palin was a “diva,” or a “whack job” as some McCain aides have anonymously described her, one has to ask … how did she get there? Who was responsible for vetting and picking her? How much vetting would it take to determine she had the strong potential to be a diva whack job?

Others point to the decisions made by McCain’s campaign “strategists,” and the erratic tactics they deployed (seemingly with no backing strategy, just tactics). But whether it is campaign strategists or the VP candidate, ultimately one person chose those folks … John McCain.

But it is my opinion that none of that mattered to the outcome, except perhaps the size of the loss. But the loss itself was nearly pre-ordained.

We watched the Republican Party settle on John McCain as the candidate almost by a process of elimination. Romney, Guliani, and Huckabee ended up strongly opposed by one faction or another of the Republican Party. In effect, ruled out. McCain was the one who somehow managed to not to do that, though not many Republicans seemed very excited by his eventual victory.

But I really don’t think it would have mattered who they nominated. The environment was simply too harsh for Republicans to win.

One would hope they would start their re-assessment by looking for the source of that harsh environment. And there’s no need to look to Wasilla or Sedona, you can start your search at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and end it at the Naval Observatory (residence of VP Dick Cheney).

You can start with the promises they made in 2000. Bush said he would be a “uniter not a divider” and Cheney said they would “restore honor” in the executive branch. For the past eight years, various people have accused them of lying about various things.

But those were The Original Sins. Mr. Uniter leaves with the lowest approval rating ever, showing time and time again that he was truly Mr. Divider, and Mr. Restore Honor’s former Chief of Staff is a jailed felon.

Need we even mention details like Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, Katrina, “dead or alive,” weapons of mass destruction, etc.? Oh, they had help along the way from Mark Foley, Tom DeLay, Duke Cunningham, Larry Craig, Ted Stevens, etc.

But the reputation of the Republican Party was destroyed by the two men who held the top offices the last eight years. Anything McCain or Palin did amounted to a quick coat of cheap paint on an already burning husk of a party.

In my opinion, they are not fully to blame for these results. Oh, surely, they contributed to the outcome by running an absolutely lousy campaign, but they started this relay race 100 yards behind and got a bloody botched handoff from their predecessors. Usain Bolt couldn’t have won this race.

Therefore, those who hope to rebuild the Republican Party need to turn away from the Bush/Cheney legacy, not attempt to revive it. If the Republican Party decides it simply wasn’t far enough to the right in this election, and rallies around Palin as their Best Hope for 2012, then I expect The Sarah Party will become a minority rump lucky to hold 25% of the vote (in 2004 36% of Americans labeled themselves as Republicans; in 2008, it’s down to 29%; in 2012 … ?).

Those who claim Palin is the sole remaining Republican “brand name” will see some challenges from the likes of Romney, Huckabee, or Gingrich. Those who say she’s the sole rising star in the party will hear from folks like Bobby Jindal and Eric Cantor.

One might say, “there will be blood.” Palin will next be savaged by those within her own party.

It’s been my philosophy for a couple of years that the best thing anyone can do for the Republican Party … is to vote against it. To send them off into the wilderness on a spirit walk to find themselves. And it would appear that is pretty much what has happened.

But what I perhaps had not considered is that many will refuse to go on that spirit walk. And it may well be that some portion of the Republican Party rallies around Palin as their new standard bearer. We could end up with a country where about 38% label themselves Democrat, and perhaps 25% label themselves as a “Palin Republican.”

Leaving 37% who accept neither label. Or are looking for a new one.

Could it be we will see the existing Republican Party split in two, with one part forming something new (see Whigs, 1852-56 … from which the republican party was born)? Given the Real World abandonment of the philosophy by Republicans, perhaps it is time for a “Conservative” Party.

Even if only in rhetorical terms, that could be some fertile ground to build upon. The Republican Party once stood for fiscal responsibility, small government and personal freedom. It can once again. But not by embracing the past.

It’s a new world. Someone’s got to reclaim those philosophies, and adapt them to this new environment.

Mon. Nov 03, 2008

The Math Says No Lines In Georgia, And A Long Wait For Results

There are 5.75 million registered voters in Georgia, and 3,000 polling places. I read a prediction of a national turnout of 64% of registered voters, so let’s generously estimate 70% in Georgia. 4,029,900. That’s, on average, 1,343 people per polling place. On average, that’s 112 people per hour the polls are open, at each and every one of those 3,000 precincts.

However … 2 million Georgians have already voted. And if a 70% turnout prediction means a touch over 4 million total voters in Georgia … then half have already voted.

That means out of that 112 people per hour per precinct, 56 of them have no need to show up. And 2 million total voters is far less than the 3 million who voted at the Georgia polls in 2004.

Thus, there should be no extended lines for voting in Georgia.

Based on the 2004 turnout, plus the 2 million votes already cast, you should be able to handle a total of 5 million voters (an 87% turnout) before you see lines longer than 2004.

Call me an optimist.

However, some of the folks responsible for counting all those votes in Georgia are pretty pessimistic about us hearing the final results Tuesday night.

And I imagine those kinds of issues will be in evidence in other states in an amplified form (many states expect an equally high turnout, but had no early voting). So despite the fact many pundits claim the race may be called by 9PM EST, I have a feeling it’s going to take a lot longer.

My biggest hope for this election is a huge turnout, perhaps 140 million voters (which would be about 15 million more than in 2004). And if that hope becomes a reality, well, we should expect it to take some extra time to count all those votes.

So I expect to have a short wait to vote on Tuesday, but I don’t expect to know the final totals until Wednesday.

Fri. Oct 31, 2008

Has Palin Read The Constitution?

On one ticket, we have a professor of Constitutional law, and on the other ticket, we have someone who appears not to understand the document at all:

Palin told WMAL-AM that her criticism of Obama’s associations, like those with 1960s radical Bill Ayers and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, should not be considered negative attacks. Rather, for reporters or columnists to suggest that it is going negative may constitute an attack that threatens a candidate’s free speech rights under the Constitution, Palin said.

“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations,” Palin told host Chris Plante, “then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”

Palin Fears Media Threaten Her First Amendment Rights

Goodness, is the woman even familiar with the document? Here’s the First Amendment:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

It proclaims citizens shall be protected from their government abridging their freedom of speech.

It says nothing about anyone else.

In fact, when you exercise your right to free speech, as Palin has freely done throughout this campaign, it almost insures that others will exercise their rights to freedom of speech to counter your claims and criticisms.

If it’s too hot, get out of the kitchen. Don’t twist the Bill of Rights in an attempt to shut down the free speech of those who counter your criticisms.

We all have that right, Sarah. And some may use it to critique your every utterance, with the end effect being that folks become convinced you don’t know what you’re talking about.

Like now.